2025 SMB Recession Readiness Report

With economic uncertainty looming, small business owners are taking stock of their preparedness for a potential downturn. Clarify Capital's 2025 SMB Recession Readiness Report comes from a survey of 300 entrepreneurs across the U.S. to find out how confident they feel about weathering a recession, what actions they've already taken, and where they feel most vulnerable. We found that while some business owners are proactively preparing, many are still unsure or unprepared to navigate financial instability.

Emma Parker
Written by
Emma Parker
Bryan Gerson
Edited by
Bryan Gerson
Michael Baynes
Fact-checkedReviewed by
Michael Baynes
2025 SMB Recession Readiness Report
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Key Takeaways:

  • About 2 in 3 small business owners (66%) believe a recession will hit in the next 12 months.

  • Over 1 in 3 business owners who attempted to secure funding (36%) said it was more difficult in the past year.

  • Over 1 in 4 small business owners (28%) don't feel confident in their ability to access capital if needed during a downturn.

  • Nearly 2 in 5 small business owners (39%) admit they're operating without a financial safety net.

  • Just over 1 in 4 small businesses have a recession plan.

Recession Prep: Few Have a Plan, Many Feel Exposed

Infographic showing 66% of small business owners expect a recession in the next year. 44% don’t feel ready. Top reasons for feeling prepared include low overhead (60%) and cutting expenses (50%). Top concerns include lack of cash reserves (59%) and reliance on demand (58%)

  • Over 1 in 3 small business owners (39%) said the media is underplaying how bad the economy really is. Only 35% said coverage is accurate, while 26% believe the threat is being overhyped.

  • 66% of small business owners believe a recession will hit in the next 12 months. ​​

  • Millennial business owners were more likely to feel unprepared. Over half (56%) said they weren't ready for a recession, while just 1 in 3 (32%) felt prepared.

  • Gen Z business owners were more confident about a downturn: 61% felt prepared, while 1 in 3 (30%) said they weren't.

Top Areas Where Businesses Feel Most Vulnerable in a Downturn

  • Cash flow and revenue consistency: 50%

  • Client/customer retention: 36%

  • Sales and marketing: 29%

  • Supply chain or inventory: 29%

  • Operational overhead: 15%

Top Industries Most Prepared for a Recession

  1. Legal

  2. Finance

  3. Hospitality

Top Industries Least Prepared for a Recession

  1. Marketing

  2. Arts/Entertainment

  3. Retail

Top 5 Actions Businesses Have Taken Amid Economic Volatility

  • No changes yet: 40%

  • Reduced discretionary spending: 36%

  • Delayed new purchases or upgrades: 32%

  • Raised prices to offset costs: 17%

  • Paused hiring or expansion plans: 15%

How Many Small Businesses Have a Recession Plan?

  • No, not preparing at this time: 43%

  • Not yet, but working on one: 30%

  • Yes, an informal plan: 23%

  • Yes, a detailed, documented plan: 4%

What's Keeping SMB Owners Up at Night?

Infographic showing 72% of small business owners feel ready to cut costs. First actions include cutting marketing (28%), raising prices (27%), and tapping credit (23%). Most protected areas: tech (26%), office space (24%), and customer support (24%)

  • Over 1 in 3 business owners who attempted to secure funding (36%) said they faced more difficulty doing so in the past 12 months.

  • Over 1 in 4 small business owners (28%) said they do not feel confident in their ability to access capital if needed during a downturn.

  • Nearly 2 in 5 small business owners (39%) admit they're operating without a financial safety net.

Financial Safety Nets Small Businesses Currently Have

  • Cash reserves or emergency savings: 39%

  • A business credit card or line of credit: 34%

  • A business savings account or CD: 17%

  • Access to family/investor capital: 15%

  • An active small business loan: 4%

Industries Most Confident in Making Operational Cuts During a Downturn

  1. Marketing

  2. Hospitality

  3. Finance

  4. Education

  5. Legal

Methodology

We surveyed 300 American small business owners to uncover how small business owners in the U.S. are actively preparing for a potential recession. The average age was 43; 42% were female, 57% were male, and 1% were non-binary.

About Clarify Capital

Clarify Capital helps business owners secure the financing they need to thrive in today's competitive marketplace, including no-doc business loans and fast business loans. Our tailored financial solutions support entrepreneurial dreams, turning visions into reality.

Fair Use Statement

If you'd like to share insights from this report, you're welcome to do so for noncommercial purposes. Just be sure to include a link back to Clarify Capital and provide proper credit.

Emma Parker

Emma Parker

Senior Funding Manager

Emma holds a B.S. in finance from NYU and has been working in the business financing industry for over a decade. She is passionate about helping small business owners grow by finding the right funding option that makes sense for them. More about the Clarify team →

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